Bitcoin: in history, December will be a month of sales
In the last few hours, Bitcoin has stabilized around $17,000 after a recovery linked to the return of investors’ risk appetite, also favored by a change in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Investors have started buying risky assets again after Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington on Wednesday. The president of the Federal Reserve sent to the market the signal that the Central Bank could reduce the pressure on interest rates as of the next meeting on December 13 and 14, also thanks to the most recent consumer price data that they went down.
However, the crypto environment remains severely depressed. The FTX collapse led to a 16% decline in cryptocurrency capitalization in November, while the S&P 500 rose more than 5%. The problem is that there is fear of a contagion effect that will spread like wildfire. Lender BlockFi also filed for bankruptcy this week, while other industry players like Genesis and Gemini are in the process of following suit after blocking withdrawals.
This will be December for BITCOIN
Therefore, Bitcoin investors are watching the month ahead with concern. What December will it be for cryptocurrencies? Historical data is not favourable. December is usually positive for the stock market but for Bitcoin it is usually characterized by strong turbulence. Over the past three years, there has been an average loss of almost 11% for the digital currency this month. According to John Toro, head of trading at the Independent Reserve digital asset exchange, the cryptocurrency world is experiencing a period of contagion, in which “assessment of counterparty credit risk and creditworthiness remains imperative.” Thus, in his opinion, “it seems highly likely that during this period of increased credit risk, Bitcoin will underperform other high-risk assets.” Richard Galvin, co-founder of fund manager Digital Asset Capital, has a different opinion. Management, according to which some of the fears are excessively excessive and the most extreme conjectures about the risk of contagion will fall precisely during the month of December.
Bitcoin: Novogratz Drops $500,000 Forecast
Meanwhile, Bitcoin advocate Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, backed down on his prediction a few months ago, when he said the digital currency would hit $500,000 in five years. Novogratz now says that Bitcoin will go up to 500,000, but not in just five years. This is because, the CEO of Galaxy Digital argues, the Fed is raising interest rates to contain inflation and this has an impact on all risky assets. The senior manager also cites defaults by FTX, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and BlockFi as factors that have “damaged general confidence in cryptocurrencies,” though “this too shall pass,” he glossed.